Analysts: Afghanistan’s economic future requires government plan

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The withdrawal of international troops will threaten the country’s economy and the future of investments in Afghanistan, analysts told TOLOnews, adding that good planning on the part of the government was needed to control the situation.

Investors said the government did not have appropriate plans to boost investment and preserve existing businesses in the country.

Some private sector representatives said the lack of investment guarantees has driven many investors to leave the country in recent months.

“Even now, the government budget is in fact particularly dependent on international aid and the government itself is dependent in terms of international support and morale,” said Sayed Massoud, economic affairs analyst and university professor.

Other analysts have said that if peace is secured, these challenges will be met as soon as certain plans are made by the international community to support the achievements of the economy after the departure of US troops and the coalition from Afghanistan.

“We have to think about the economic dimensions of a responsible withdrawal. If so, the new Afghan private sector will be helped, ”said Samim Sarim, economic affairs analyst.

But the Economy Ministry said the international community will maintain its commitment to Afghanistan after the withdrawal of foreign troops from the country.

“This withdrawal is only a military withdrawal. The international community’s political, economic, technical and financial support for Afghanistan will continue, ”said Saboor Nariman, spokesperson for the Ministry of the Economy.

The World Bank, in a report released in April, said Afghanistan faces the prospect of a slow economic recovery from COVID-19 amid continued political uncertainty and possible aid decline. international.

The report titled “Setting Course to Recovery” said that robust agricultural growth has “partly supported the Afghan economy, which shrank by around 2% in 2020, a smaller contraction than previous estimates”. But he said closures, weak investment and trade disruptions have hit tough services and industries, increasing hardship and unemployment in cities.

The report says full recovery will be difficult as many businesses have closed and jobs have been lost.
The World Bank said private sector confidence has weakened due to difficult security conditions, uncertainty over the outcome of ongoing peace talks, possible withdrawal of international troops and potential sharp declines. future international aid.

Additionally, the Asian Development Bank, in a report released in April, said Afghanistan’s economic growth is expected to pick up this year and accelerate next year after a sharp decline in 2020 due to the coronavirus as well as relentless violence and instability.

In its Asia Development Outlook (ADO) 2021, the AfDB predicts that Afghanistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth will rebound to 3.0% in 2021, reaching 4.0% in 2022 as that business activity and market sentiment normalize.


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