Biden to win popular vote of 10%, Chapman business model predicts – Orange County Register

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An economics-based forecasting model predicts that former Vice President Joe Biden will win the popular vote by a 10% margin in the November presidential election.

The model was developed at Chapman University in Orange by economist and former Chapman President Jim Doti with the help of students in his econometrics class.

Doti said there was no guarantee the model would be accurate this time around, as voters might not tie President Donald Trump’s management of the economy to the recession caused by this year’s pandemic.

But the model was accurate in calling the result of 15 of the last 16 US presidential elections, dating back to the Dwight Eisenhower-Adlai Stevenson showdown in 1956.

The only hiccup was in 1960 when the equation called on then-vice president Richard Nixon to beat John F. Kennedy by a tiny margin. The actual result – a victory for JFK by a small margin – varied slightly from what the model expected.

The model uses economic variables such as real gross domestic product, inflation, and job growth to see how an incumbent will fare in the popular vote. A comparison shows that the results of the forecasting model are almost identical to the actual results of the popular vote.

“Not only is this correct, but it gives the extent of the ruling party’s victories and losses as well,” Doti said Tuesday, June 23, when presenting Chapman’s latest economic forecast online.

A Chapman University model that predicts popular vote results based on economic variables shows that Vice President Joe Biden won the popular vote in November by a 10% margin. (Photo courtesy of Chapman University)

Doti noted that the devastating data in the second quarter of this year does not favor Trump. Annualized GDP is expected to experience an unprecedented drop of 35% and the unemployment rate is expected to hit 19.7%, according to Chapman figures.

“It turns out that the equation calls for a loss of minus 10% of the popular vote for the ruling party,” Doti said. “Which means the model calls for a 10% win for Biden, a pretty big win.”

Doti noted that the model’s results have varied more from actual results in recent years, perhaps a sign that voters may be less concerned about the economy or that society is more polarized.

“You could rule that out and say, it’s COVID. Voters are not going to blame Trump for the weak economy this year, ”Doti said. “They will attribute it to COVID, an act of God, if you will, not the President.”

But there have been other incumbents, such as President George HW Bush, who have experienced recessions that they did not bring about under their watch, and voters have always blamed them for it, Doti said. And polls show voters’ approval ratings for Trump’s economic management fell 17 percentage points between January and the most recent polls.

“So it looks like voters are blaming Trump, at least to some extent. That’s what the equation says, ”Doti said. “Even with COVID, that would be a pretty big deficit to overcome. “


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