Perspectives on the use of modeling and economic analysis to guide HIV programs in sub-Saharan Africa

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HIV lancet. April 22, 2022: S2352-3018(22)00035-2. doi: 10.1016/S2352-3018(22)00035-2. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

HIV modeling and economic analyzes have played a prominent role in guiding programmatic responses to HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. However, there has been little thought about how the field of HIV modeling might develop in the future. HIV modeling should align more systematically with national government and ministry of health priorities, recognizing their legitimate mandates and stewardship responsibilities, for HIV and other broader health agendas. Importance should also be given to collaboration among modellers, and that joint approaches to addressing modeling issues become the norm rather than the exception. Such an environment can accelerate the translation of modeling analyzes into policy formulation, as areas where models agree can be prioritized for action, while areas where uncertainty prevails can be investigated, additional data collection and analysis. HIV modeling should increasingly be integrated with modeling of health needs beyond HIV, particularly in allocative efficiency analyses, where focusing on one disease rather than another could lead to deterioration of overall health. Such integration could also strengthen partnership with national governments whose mandates extend beyond HIV. Finally, we see the need for substantial and equitable investment in capacity building within African countries, so that African researchers increasingly lead modeling exercises. Building a critical mass of expertise, enhanced by external collaboration and knowledge exchange, should be the ultimate goal.

PMID:35468318 | DOI:10.1016/S2352-3018(22)00035-2

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